Our planet’s population will continue to grow rapidly: between 2010 and 2025 global population will grow by more than 1.1 bln people. At the same time the levels of consumption will grow. It is expected that by 2025 the size of the urban consumer class will grow by 1 bln people and overall middle class will amount to more than 50% of the total global population.
Urbanization and growth of the consumer class in developing countries will, in turn, promote growth in demand for real estate, infrastructure, cars, hi-tech goods and, as a result, energy resources.
Demand for liquid hydrocarbons will continue to grow. Global demand for liquid hydrocarbons will continue to grow annually by 1.2% on average and will reach 105 mb/d by 2025. The greatest surge in oil demand will come from the transportation sector, for which oil is the principal energy source (over 90%).
Consumption of liquid hydrocarbons will increase in the developing countries where the transportation industry is undergoing rapid growth. Analysts expect to see significant growth in the number of cars as well as the development of sea, air and railway transportation.
In addition to this, growth in demand for oil in the developing countries will be further encouraged by the industrial sector, in particular, the petrochemical industry. At the same time, consumption of liquid hydrocarbons in the developed countries will remain relatively stable due to the low rates of economic growth and further improvements of fuel economy.
Despite stable growth rates oil’s share in the global consumption of energy resources will gradually decrease, because of substitution for other energy sources in such sectors as power generation and housing.
Gas consumption will grow faster than oil consumption. The greatest potential for gas consumption growth is in China, while the European markets will continue remain stagnant.
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